ࡱ > ~ ` bjbj . t j j j j v Y Y Y $ h * Y 7 " Y Y Y Y 8 Y R&o j 0 : Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y F $ F * 14. P(hastv | test4tv) =
= <0.97 * 0.000001, 0.03 * 0.999999>
= <0.00000097, 0.02999997>
= 0.00000097/0.03000094
= 0.0000323
Or about 32 in a million, 32 times more likely that someone who has not taken the test.
15.
i) Yes, A & D are conditionally independent given C
ii) No, since B is also dependant on F and C is also dependant on D
iii) Yes, since E does not cause A and D is independent of A.
iv) Yes, since A is independent of D.
16.1)
Fred-late CPD
Fred-bus-late Wake-up-service-fails P(Fred-late)
T T 1
T F 1
F T 1
F F 0.01
John-late CPD
John-bus-late Wake-up-service-fails P(John-late)
T T 1
T F 1
F T 1
F F 0.01
16.2)
P(JBL|John-late) =
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